US DOLLAR INDEX: Prices re-testing the previously broken bottom of a rising
channel set from the September 14 low (now at 9831). A break higher initially exposes the 38.2%Fibonacci retracement at 9857. Near-term support lines up at 9783, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% expansion at 9738.
Concerns about global economic growth are mounting, demand for safety rises and Forex market participants are still questioning the sustainability of the peg. Can the SNB keep the
ceiling intact? As it usually happens, opinions are divided on this matter.
rising inflation, the ability of the Swiss economy to cope with a strong currency and a potential for the intervention to reach 100 percent of Switzerland’s gross domestic product. The deflationary pressure was one of the main reasons for the central bank to introduce the ceiling and as that danger of deflation subsides,
so the incentive for the bank to keep the peg. As for the nation’s economy, GDP was rising steadily this year, showing that Switzerland is indeed on track to robust economic growth. That gives support to the opinion that the danger of a strong currency was overestimated. As for the matter of capital controls, most experts think that such measures never proved effective and, besides, the international community is not likely to be pleased with such blatant currency manipulation. There are already many voices that compare Switzerland to China.
so the incentive for the bank to keep the peg. As for the nation’s economy, GDP was rising steadily this year, showing that Switzerland is indeed on track to robust economic growth. That gives support to the opinion that the danger of a strong currency was overestimated. As for the matter of capital controls, most experts think that such measures never proved effective and, besides, the international community is not likely to be pleased with such blatant currency manipulation. There are already many voices that compare Switzerland to China.
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